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Market Brief

News & Freight Implications — October 1, 2026

Iran says it received a U.S. response to its peace proposal

Reported September 30, 2026; diplomatic exchange reported that day.

Illustrative satellite photograph: Strait of Hormuz, December 6, 2018. MODIS Land Rapid Response Team / NASA GSFC; public domain. It does not show current shipping conditions. Photo source

Iranian officials said a U.S. response to their proposal had been received, without publishing its terms. Asharq Al Awsat, citing state media and AFP, reports the exchange; Reuters separately reports Qatari mediation. These reports do not establish an agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

For your freight business: Keep alternative routings available and confirm carrier acceptance before promising Gulf transit times.

Sources: Asharq Al Awsat / AFP · Reuters, September 29

Oil and fuel supply remain under pressure as China pauses October exports

Reuters reports published October 1, 2026; planned October shipments affected.

Illustrative photograph: Irving Oil Refinery, Canada, July 22, 2025. Quintin Soloviev; CC BY 4.0. This is not a Chinese refinery or a photograph of the reported event. Photo source · License

Reuters reports, citing sources, that Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel exports to preserve domestic stocks. Permission to resume exports after October 7 remains uncertain. Reuters also reports rising oil prices amid tighter fuel supplies and Middle East tensions. The export pause is attributed reporting, rather than a published blanket government order.

For your freight business: Monitor bunker adjustments and inland diesel surcharges separately. A recovery in crude flows does not automatically lower trucking or marine-fuel costs.

Sources: Reuters: fuel exports · Reuters: oil market

Transpacific rates remain firm; verified Golden Week blanks approach

Drewry assessment: October 1, 2026. Maersk advisory: August 28, 2026; affected departures: October 9.

Illustrative photograph: Hamburg container terminal, May 28, 2020. NicoKutzner1997; CC BY-SA 4.0. It does not depict current Asian port congestion. Photo source · License

Drewry assesses Shanghai–Los Angeles at US$7,835 per 40ft and Shanghai–New York at US$10,428, up 1% for New York. It lists ten transpacific blanks next week versus thirteen this week and forecasts softer rates after holiday closures. A forecast is not a confirmed decrease.

Carrier	Service / voyage	Trade lane	First blanked departure
Maersk	TP8 / 640E	Asia–USWC	Busan · October 9, 2026
Maersk	TP12 / 641E	Asia–USEC	Ningbo · October 9, 2026

The named departures are blanked, with alternative coverage in the carrier advisory. Removed TEU capacity is not quantified; Canadian departures are not identified in this notice.

For your freight business: Confirm voyage numbers, replacement sailings and cut-offs before arranging pickup. Index rates are benchmarks; obtain shipment-specific quotes and space confirmation.

Sources: Drewry WCI · Maersk advisory

U.S. reportedly slows aircraft-parts export licensing to China

Reuters published October 1, 2026; licensing slowdown reported over recent weeks.

Historical illustrative photograph: Boeing 737 final assembly, 1975. Click Americana; CC BY 2.0. It does not show present-day production or an affected shipment. Photo source · License

Reuters reports, citing sources, that U.S. authorities have slowed aircraft-parts export licensing to China. Officials are also considering a draft rule that could expand restrictions. The draft is not an enacted rule, and this report does not establish a new tariff.

For your freight business: For aerospace cargo, have exporters verify licensing and end-user requirements before accepting a firm departure commitment. Tariff relief does not remove export-control obligations.

Sources: Reuters

This Week 39 transpacific market update covers U.S.–China tariff developments, the Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 outlook, Golden Week capacity constraints, and origin-level space and equipment conditions. Our assessment is that potential tariff relief could support selected cargo demand, while blank sailings, congestion, and connecting-service constraints remain the immediate booking challenges.

1. U.S.–China tariff developments and the economic outlook

The new “30-for-30” framework identifies products representing approximately US$30 billion of annual trade in each direction, based on 2024 trade values. This represents existing trade potentially eligible for lower duties, rather than US$60 billion of additional orders. The official terms leave reductions to each country’s legal implementation process and do not specify an effective date. Official framework.

The U.S. list includes selected toys, household appliances, linens, kitchenware, holiday items, and baby products. China’s list includes agricultural products, personal-care products, medical equipment, and coal. China reports that additional bilateral duties would be removed on over 90% of covered products, leaving normal most-favored-nation duties. Product eligibility must be checked by tariff classification and any “Ex-Out” limitation; this is not blanket relief for every product in those sectors. U.S. product list; China Commerce Ministry announcement.

Our analysis: if implemented promptly, lower duties could improve importer margins, working capital, and consumer purchasing power, while improving the competitiveness of eligible U.S. exports to China. Q4 benefits may be limited by implementation timing and inventory already imported. Q1 offers more time for lower-cost replenishment to move through the supply chain. Higher energy, transport, and financing costs could absorb part of the savings.

U.S. August retail and food-service sales increased 1.2% month over month and 6.0% year over year. These are dollar sales, not adjusted for inflation, and do not imply equivalent growth in container demand. The figures also precede this tariff announcement. U.S. Census retail release.

2. Import volumes: September data status and the demand outlook

As of September 30, verified full-month September 2026 USWC import TEU totals were not available in the public releases reviewed. Descartes’ September edition reports August activity; its latest measured national total is 2,603,709 TEU, up 3.8% month over month and 3.3% year over year. China-origin imports were 884,318 TEU. These national figures cover all origins and are not TP-only volumes. Descartes August report.

USWC gateway evidence — latest published actual month: Long Beach reports 456,100 loaded import TEU in August 2026 (+3.6% year over year), while Los Angeles reports 500,301.5 loaded import TEU. Combined, these two gateways handled 956,401.5 loaded import TEU. This is August activity reported in September, not September actual volume and not the entire USWC. Long Beach September 10 release (cross-checked against Railway Age’s report); Los Angeles official statistics.

The September 9 NRF/Hackett forecast calls for 2.31 million TEU in September, followed by 2.11 million in October, 2.00 million in November, 2.03 million in December, and 2.09 million in January. These forecasts cover selected major U.S. ports across all three coasts and use a different scope from Descartes. They predate the tariff framework and cannot be used to measure its effect. NRF forecast release.

Implication for TP planning: the forecast supports an extended import peak followed by seasonal easing, rather than an automatic market-wide surge. Tariff relief may support selected replenishment, but the rate outlook depends on bookings relative to capacity. Reduced sailings can keep space tight even when total demand moderates. Coast-level September totals should be added only after release, using a consistent import-volume definition.

3. Golden Week, blank sailings and origin-port conditions

China’s October 1–7 Golden Week holiday follows a late-September shipping rush. Typhoon-related congestion since August has reduced effective transpacific capacity through vessel delays, schedule disruptions and port omissions. Shanghai and Ningbo remain the most affected gateways.

The latest origin report records 19 omitted calls and 33 blank sailings affecting Shanghai in September. The October schedule indicates 13 omitted calls, while blank sailings remain at a similar level. Ningbo reports fewer omissions but a comparable number of blank sailings. These are origin-reported monthly figures; the weekly service counts below cover a different scope.

USWC space remains tight through October 14, while USEC availability is comparatively better. Haiphong’s latest origin estimate indicates a capacity reduction of nearly 50% over the next two weeks. Shippers should allow additional time for feeder connections and confirm equipment, cut-offs and carrier acceptance before committing cargo.

The attached September 30 schedule lists 14 PSW and 5 PNW blank sailings across Weeks 40–41. Its capacity summary implies approximately 28.2% of PSW and 14.9% of PNW nominal capacity removed across those two weeks. Port omissions create additional origin-specific constraints and are shown separately from full-service blanks.

Conditions could gradually stabilize after Golden Week if congestion eases and fewer sailings are withdrawn. Accumulated backlogs may delay the recovery. Any improvement in Panama Canal transit slots or permitted drafts could support USEC service capacity; the reported draft allowance of up to 49 feet remains subject to current Canal advisories. Water availability remains a factor in future operating limits.

Latest service-string changes: Weeks 40–44

The table below uses the attached workbook’s Report-2026 service matrix. It supersedes the earlier service-specific blank and omission notes in the origin space tables. In particular, PS4 omits Shanghai in Weeks 40 and 41 and is blank in Week 42. A dash means no change is listed in this matrix; it does not guarantee space or an unchanged sailing.

All weeks retain the source schedule’s labels. The workbook’s USEC weekly summary tabs do not fully reconcile; use the individual service entries for booking checks. The attachment contains the complete schedule and rotations. Latest schedules remain subject to carrier changes.

4. India–U.S. ocean market

India–USWC space remains tight, particularly on second-leg and transshipment connections, while USEC availability is comparatively better. Congestion at Nhava Sheva and Mundra is easing according to the latest origin feedback. Equipment at major seaports is manageable, but availability at inland ports and ICDs remains uneven.

Carrier blank sailings and schedule adjustments are expected to continue through Week 44. The origin matrix lists COSCO and OOCL blanks in Weeks 42–43 on both coasts. Current feedback anticipates limited disruption from post-monsoon weather. Early booking and confirmation of connecting sailings remain advisable.

5. China origin space and rolling exposure — Weeks 40–45

PSW = Pacific Southwest; PNW = Pacific Northwest; USEC = U.S. East Coast; USGC = U.S. Gulf Coast. “Normal” space does not eliminate connection or rollover risk.

6. Vietnam — Ho Chi Minh City

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

7. Vietnam — Haiphong

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

8. Malaysia — local service and booking notes

ONE eastbound space to both coasts remains tight. The bulletin reports a 24-hour cancellation rule from October 1, affecting October pre-bookings. MSC PNW/Canada/USEC/Gulf remains within weekly FAK allocations; Sentosa Direct is reported to have slipped to Week 39. Reconfirm current ETD because that referenced week has passed.

Wan Hai September USWC space ex-PKL is full; the next reported PKL option is October 7, subject to space. Ex-PGU, October 2/7 may be considered for USWC via double transshipment, while the supplied next USEC option is November 20. COSCO’s next opening is reported for the third week of October; PGU feeder constraints remain, with a merchant-rail option under development at additional cost. Hapag-Lloyd FAK space is allocation-controlled, with excess volume potentially attempted via online QQ-Spot.

September options are effectively full, with many openings moving to mid-October or later. Any remaining urgent shipment requires immediate availability checks. Final ETD remains subject to carrier acceptance and shipping-order release.

Malaysia — weekly carrier space

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

9. Thailand

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

10. Indonesia

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

11. Korea

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

12. Philippines

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

13. Cambodia — feeder and connecting-service conditions

Most carriers report Phnom Penh feeder delays of approximately five days. ONE reports tight Sihanoukville feeder space in Week 40, with Week 41 bookings still possible. Maersk USEC is fully booked in Weeks 40–41. ZIM reports tight USWC space in Week 40, while USEC bookings remain possible. HMM reports tight USEC and open USWC space. COSCO can accept bookings to both coasts but faces tight Sihanoukville feeder space. Wan Hai USEC is tight in Week 40; USWC requires case-by-case checks. MSC reports tight space to both coasts in Week 40, with Week 41 bookings possible. Service-specific statements may differ from the broader weekly matrix.

Cambodia — weekly carrier space

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

14. India — weekly carrier space

Each cell shows USWC | USEC. Blank/omit service names are retained from the supplied bulletin. NA means not available or not specified in the bulletin.

15. Equipment availability

Data sources and outlook: Most of the data and source materials in this update were collected by me. The market analysis reflects my personal views and assessment of the information available at the time of writing. Forecasts and expected developments are not guaranteed to occur, and actual market conditions may differ.